Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Argentina [2 of 2]


The newest move of Cristina Kirchner is the currency restrictions which officially targets money-laundering. After the “corralito” in 2001 when almost all bank accounts in Argentina got frozen and withdrawals from U.S. dollar dominated accounts was forbidden. Argentinians do not trust their banking system, bank vaults are common amongst the wealthier, they minimize the use of credit cards and worst of all they avoid their currency. Argentinians tend to keep all their savings in USD and all more expensive items such as cars and houses are priced in USD.

If you talk about politics in Argentina you always have to be careful who you are talking to and who is around you as it is a sensitive topic for them, just as football. Over the last 18 months I have spent over 1 year in Argentina, and I have been wondering a lot how did Cristina Kirchner manage to get over 50% of the votes?  I studied at a small private university and discussed this topic with close to 100 Argentinians and only a small percentage of them seem to like her. Then how did she get all those votes?



There are several reasons that have occurred to me but in the end it all seems to be about trust, or distrust. Argentinians trust even less in politicians than in the banks and it seems they are afraid of voting for someone else as it could be worse than Cristina. Another reason is Cristina’s policies regarding strikes and subsidies. She has gained popularity with the middle and lower class by increasing subsidies for gas, water and public transport. Regarding strikes she is a “liberalist” and protests are things that you see every day.

The most common one is “corte de ruta”, which is when protestors go into the middle of streets, roads or motorways and block all traffic. Laws do not allow the police to arrest the protestors and therefore the protests can go on forever. Currently I am stuck at the Argentina’s biggest airport Ezeiza as the migrations staff is on strike and there are few thousand passengers waiting in the check-in area. Hopefully this strike will just last for few hours as the pressure is high. Over 20 lanes are supposed to leave in the next 2 hours and passengers on arriving planes are not allowed to leave them.

Another thing I could never understand about Argentina is McDonalds. If you go to McDonalds in Argentina you never see any advertising for Big Mac and it is only shown in small letters in a menu on the wall. The reason for that is that the Big Mac is by far the cheapest product they offer and they make less profit from it than other products. The rumour is that they have been told by the government they need to keep the Big Mac price low for the Big Mac Index (because otherwise they would have one of the most expensive Big Macs in the world). The Big Mac meal today costs just over 20 (In the index its 20 pesos but current price is 22) pesos in Argentina which is over 25% more than in London. I think that is bad enough already, but there is no other product on the menu under 30 pesos! To make it even worse we can look at the price of McFlurry; it costs 16 pesos in Argentina, which is £2.40. In Britain I cad get Big Mac (with fries and coke) for the same price, and as a student I get McFlurry for free!! How fair is that???



If Argentina manages to resolve their political and economic problems their future should be bright. Argentina covers a large area of over 2.5 million km2, which includes everything from glaciers to deserts. They have access to huge amount of natural resources like gas and petroleum. Argentina has a big potential to improve their agriculture sector, currently 25% of their total exports come from soy-beans and by-products which they mostly sell to China where it is processed further.

Sources:

Pictures:



Argentina [1 of 2]


I came to Argentina last week so I thought it would be ideal to talk about the Argentinian economy. Argentina went through a fast growth which ended with deep crisis in 2001 where the Argentine peso devaluated from 1-to-1 to almost 4-to-1 against the dollar. This led to a default of the entire economy and left it with $81 billion debt which creditors are still claiming.


In 2002 the economy shrunk by 10.9% but in the last recent years the growth has been fast and stable, with an average of over 7%. The global crisis had some affects in 2009 but it did not take long to recover. This rice in GDP has been driven mainly by the commodity boom as agricultural prodcuts represents a big part of the Argentinian economy.

Import policies have been really strict in Argentina and imported goods cost up to 3 times what they cost in the US because of high import taxes. BlackBerry opened a factory at the beginning of this year in southern Argentina and the rumour is that they did this in order to import individual pieces with lower taxes and then use the factory to put them together. Another example is a family friend which has an import company in the US and he imports goods from over 20 different countries (including many Latin American countries) but not long time ago he stopped importing from Argentina as it was the only country that he knew that had such a complicated restrictions on exports!


Cristina Kirchner was re-elected in mid-October where she won the elections with 54% of the votes which turned out to be the biggest victory in the first round of an Argentinian presidential elections since the end of the dictatorship in 1983. You would think that after 4 years of presidency and then being re-elected it would be clear that she has been doing a good job; actually it is far away from being so.

She has been criticised for hiding economic problems that might come slowly come up to the surface now after the elections. The official inflation in Argentina is really low but according to CIA World Factbook the inflation in Argentina in 2010 was 22%, which was the second highest in Latin-America after Venezuela and the third highest in the world. This can clearly be seen in Argentina, for example it is common to see stickers with new prices on menus, as prices changes so frequently they cannot be bothered to print out new menus. 

Sources:

Pictures: